Let me ask you a question.
Imagine you're participating in a massive online tournament on a Sunday with 7,000 competitors. This event rewards 16% of the entrants, and you have a solid 50% ROI in this big competition.
Picture yourself entering this tournament every Sunday for a decade.
For a decade, you never miss a Sunday.
You never go to a wedding.
You never go to a live tournament.
Nothing.
How often do you believe you would end up losing money over this decade?
This question tends to puzzle many individuals. They might think, 'With a 50% ROI and playing every Sunday for ten years, I should almost always be in the green!'
However, that perception is flawed. Simulations of variance indicate that even a player with a 50% ROI over ten years might find themselves at a loss 40% of the time!
This scenario actually has a staggering standard deviation of $100,000!
Why is that? Allow me to explain.
What Is Poker Variance?
Variance refers to the extent of a player's wins or losses influenced by luck. For instance, if you flip a coin a hundred times, you’d anticipate generating 50 heads. If it lands heads 54 times, that reflects a stroke of good luck or positive variance. Conversely, landing heads only 46 times indicates negative variance.
Many times, in No-Limit Holdem When you're operating with a slight edge, opportunities might be infrequent. In such situations, a brief series of poor results can significantly increase negative variance.
New players often find it perplexing to play well yet still face financial losses. They may start to doubt themselves:
"Am I making mistakes, or is luck simply favoring others?\"
Are You Truly Experiencing a Bad Run, or Is It Just in Your Head?
There's a method to determine if you're genuinely having a bad run. You can track your performance by comparing the number of big blinds you earn against the total hands you've played.
This is particularly insightful in tournament settings. poker , where the higher stakes and later stages Negative variance can wipe out profits gained from solid play in the early stages of a tournament. Automated tools are available that can analyze your hands after play and provide these statistics for you.
One clever feature of such software is its ability to calculate your expected value (EV). Your EV represents what your Big Blind per 100 (BB/100) win rate would look like if all showdowns were resolved fairly. Expected Value (EV) When you flip a coin for your 100 big blind stack, it will count as either a 100 big blind win or a loss. The EV, however, views that flip as neutral, equating to 0 big blinds. This aids in achieving a more precise assessment of your overall poker performance.
You can manually calculate your Big Blinds Won Per 100 Hands or utilize software, but understanding these metrics is invaluable. They highlight your vulnerability to variance.
If your BB/100 is around 3 big blinds, that's acceptable! Nonetheless, it renders you quite susceptible to variance. On the other hand, achieving a BB/100 of 10 big blinds reduces the chances of running poorly.
As we've discussed previously, your variance can be quite high. What's the reason behind this? In tournaments, not every big blind holds the same weight. You might be averaging 10 BB/100 early on, but that won’t count if you encounter a rough patch in the later stages.
Game Selection and Variance
Your choice of game is also crucial.
If you play poker tournaments You may be thinking, \"But I love playing tournaments! Aren't there many players who earn their living from them?\"
Indeed, that’s true, but numerous professionals are value-oriented. They recognize that a larger player pool results in greater variance, leading them to keep their entry fees down and focus on smaller fields. They consistently engage in play, knowing that more small tournaments enhance their chances of offsetting negative variance.
The challenge with large tournament fields lies in their enjoyment factor versus the difficulty of consistently performing well in them. In a 100 or 200-player tournament, you might frequently make deep runs, while in fields numbering in the thousands, it could be a rarity to do so. The variance encountered in these instances heavily influences your overall results. buy-ins To mitigate variance, developing a diverse poker strategy is advisable. When I transitioned to professional poker, I was fortunate to win a notable online tournament. The reward wasn't monumental, but it was significant for me at a young age.
People praised my poker skills, yet just two months later, I completely stopped entering tournaments. I recognized that I had simply gotten lucky in that one contest and knew that negative variance was always a possibility.
Initially, I struggled immensely in cash games. However, after a year of persistence, I found myself competent in low-stakes cash games almost everywhere on the internet.
Through diligent effort, I progressed to 200 NL and 400 NL, establishing a stable income for myself.
I committed to learning how to play cash games From my journey, I've come to believe that if poker players aim to avoid variance, they should allocate their time as follows:
Allocate 80% of your playtime to cash games.
A Diverse Poker-Playing Portfolio
Dedicate 15% to participating in low-stakes, small-field tournaments.
- Reserve 5% for high-risk, high-reward tournaments.
- You can enter one major tournament every Sunday, but try to limit it to that. Remember that this is a gamble; you're paying for the thrill of the game. If you win some money in the process, that’s just a bonus.
- The primary reason to devote more time to cash games is straightforward: every big blind holds equivalent value in cash games, provided you don’t frequently alter your stakes.
If you go through a tough stretch in a cash game, it’s not particularly concerning. A skilled player can keep playing until the variance shifts favorably again, which is considerably harder to manage in tournaments.
Moreover, cash games typically offer deeper stacks, allowing you to better learn how to navigate flops, turns, and rivers—skills that are more challenging to develop in short-stacked tournament scenarios. big blinds In tournaments, you'll often find yourself in high-pressure situations. This environment can rapidly enhance your poker intelligence as you adapt to bullying tactics.
I trust these insights have been valuable for your game.
Alexander Fitzgerald is a seasoned poker professional who has earned over $3.5 million in tournament winnings globally. He is widely regarded as one of the top tournament coaches in the world.
Finally, if you play six-max games Are You Truly Experiencing a Bad Run, or Is It Just in Your Imagination?
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Good luck to all of you.