“Preflop pot odds” describe the price This is a key consideration when evaluating whether to make a call prior to the flop. Numerous poker schools utilize preflop pot odds as a guideline for developing effective defending strategies before the flop.
Surprisingly, many players overlook the fact that preflop pot odds are often given too much importance. Instead of being the definitive answer some sources suggest, they can be quite misleading. In fact, we might argue that preflop pot odds are somewhat of a widespread misconception in the poker community. preflop However, let's not rush into conclusions! There exists at least one scenario before the flop where pot odds can be crucial for precise calculations.
PREFLOP - UNDERSTANDING WHEN POT ODDS ARE TRULY SIGNIFICANT
Table of Contents
Let’s examine an example hand where our preflop pot odds play a vital role in deciding on the optimal action to take.
The player, referred to as Hero, makes an open raise to 3bb while in the button position with AKo.
Example – 100bb in the effective stacks
In this context, we find ourselves in a position termed 'closing the action', meaning no additional choices will be made after this point. Our aim is simply to win the hand at showdown. Situations where we 'close the action' are ideal for leveraging pot odds.
Villain in SB 3bets to 10bb. (BB folds)
Hero 4bets to 25bb
Villain 5bets all-in to 100bb
Hero?
If we were to make the call This is advantageous because we don't have to consider the more complex variables that might emerge in the following rounds. There’s no need to speculate about who might wager or fold; those choices are already decided. If we are aware of our opponent's exact hand strength, we can accurately compute our anticipated expectation (long-term gains), as it simply relies on our share of the pot.
Important Point – Pot Odds are mainly relevant when confronting an all-in bet from an opponent. range How does this calculation actually function? We need to assess the value of the pot we are presented with and compare it with our pot odds. If you have experience with calculating pot odds on later streets, you will notice that preflop is no different.
Let’s say we need to call $75 after our opponent goes all-in.
HOW TO CALCULATE PREFLOP ODDS
1. What would be the total pot if we proceeded with our call?
2. What portion of the total pot would we be contributing if we called?
Think about the following:
Once we make the call, the total pot would amount to approximately 200bb (201bb to be precise, but we can simplify that). This estimation is logical, as two players with 100bb each are all-in. We are investing 75bb of this total (remember, we do not include our original 25bb 4bet in this calculation since that's already part of the pot).
Thus, we would then be contributing 75/200, which equals 37.5% of the total pot. Therefore, 37.5% represents our pot odds in percentage form. It’s worth noting that some traditional players might prefer to express this as a ratio, such as 1.67:1 , but modern players have largely shifted away from using ratios. The reason? We typically need to compare our pot odds against our pot equity, which is often represented as a percentage. Hence, it makes logical sense to skip the conversion from ratio to percentage and focus directly on percentages.
When facing an all-in shove in a heads-up situation with 100bb effective stacks, estimating pot odds becomes straightforward. Given that the entire pot size will generally be around 200bb, you can simply divide our calling amount by 2 to get our pot odds in percentage form. effective stacks As long as our pot equity exceeds our preflop pot odds (which are 37.5%), calling becomes a strategy that is likely to yield profits over the long term.
What equity do we hold in this particular scenario?
to create an approximate estimate of our pot equity in relation to our opponent’s possible holdings. Naturally, these estimates wouldn’t typically apply mid-hand, but consistent use of equity calculators allows us to form more precise evaluations on the move. Since we aren’t in the midst of a hand right now, we can utilize an equity calculator for accurate calculations.
Before proceeding, we should quickly gauge the 5bet shoving range of our opponent. A rough guideline for this range might look like this:
How much equity However, depending on the table dynamics, the opponent’s shoving range could be narrower or broader.
CALCULATING OUR POT-EQUITY
At this stage, many players rely on equity calculators Upon inserting the above range into an equity calculator, we can determine how it matches up against our AKo: equity calculator In this instance, we find ourselves with nearly 40% equity, making our call likely to yield some profit. Of course, in closely contested situations, we should account for rake as well. In games with a rake that exceeds 6% or more, this preflop call could potentially turn out to be a small losing decision. (This concern is particularly relevant in lower-stakes games.)
Naturally, it’s wise to explore alternative strategies if we suspect our opponent’s range is either looser or tighter.
JJ+,AKs,AKo
Let’s evaluate our standing against a somewhat looser range:
Conversely, it’s possible that our opponent is exceedingly conservative and only 5bets with the following tighter range.
In that case, we simply wouldn't possess enough pot equity to justify our call.
This brief analysis imparts several important insights.
1. The decision to call a 5bet with AKo often proves to be closer than many players realize. It’s typically more favorable for our opponent to fold to our 4bet than to proceed with a 5bet.
TT+, AJs+, AQo+
2. Opting to fold against a 5bet with AKo can be a completely valid choice, especially if the price is not advantageous. This observation can help dispel the common misconception that “once we 4bet with AKo, we can never fold to a 5bet.”
KK+
In this example, we should fold our AKo when facing the 5bet jam 3. In situations that are nearly even, it’s crucial to include considerations like rake and other factors such as the size of our 4bet and the effective stacks involved. If our 4bet amount is smaller in such scenarios, it could lead us to receive a less favorable price against the 5bet, sometimes making folding a more reasonable option. Even playing with a depth of 120bb instead of 100bb can affect our decision considerably.
So far, we’ve explored how a precise and thoughtful approach to pot odds can enhance our decision-making during preflop play. But why do we still consider preflop pot odds a myth? Because most preflop decisions are not all-in situations, thus pot odds become largely irrelevant.
There’s an array of strategic resources that connect preflop range construction to the pot odds presented when confronted with an opening raise. Simply put, this is a flawed mathematical application. The pot odds we encounter give us minimal to no insight into the
- we can expect from a call. Even skilled players sometimes seem perplexed by this, citing “pot odds” as their reason for making preflop decisions that cannot be effectively analyzed through pot odds alone.
Recognizing this limitation, some players have sought to blend preflop pot odds with 'equity-realization' techniques to gauge preflop defending ranges. While this combination holds more merit than simply relying on raw pot odds, it often requires making speculative estimates regarding a hand's potential value in various postflop scenarios. (An example of this will follow.) It should become clear to observant players that a more precise methodology is preferable.
THE PREFLOP POT ODDS MYTH
WHY PRE-FLOP POT ODDS FALL SHORT IN MOST CASES
What prevents us from effectively applying pot odds in various preflop situations? expectation The answer is likely lingering in our minds but may require some prompting.
Consider the following postflop scenario:
Example – 100bb effective stacks. The Hero chooses to cold-call with ATs from the button against a 3bb open from the MP. There’s 7.5bb in the pot on the flop, and we have a nut flush draw. Our opponent bets 6bb. If we decide to call, we will have 91bb left in the effective stacks.
What’s the best action to take in this situation? Some might suggest raising, which could very well be viable, but for now let’s disregard that option. Envision that we are limited to choosing between a call or a fold; which path should we take?
Assuming only our flush draw cards are live, we will complete our best hand about 18% of the time by the turn. When it comes to the pot odds, we would be putting in 6bb towards a total pot of 19.5bb, meaning we’re investing roughly 31% of the overall pot. In simpler terms, the pot odds do not justify the call here. Should that mean the best option is to fold? Absolutely not; such a decision would be irrational, and hopefully, we instinctively grasp that. Here, pot odds are irrelevant because a more significant element is at play: our
Most players understand the implications of implied odds in preflop scenarios, yet they often neglect to consider
. Just as we may decide to call despite not having pot odds due to the potential for future earning (implied odds), there are times when we must fold even when the odds favor us, due to the risk of future losses (reverse implied odds). Every poker mathematics book explains implied odds, yet few delve into the calculations related to reverse implied odds. Ponder this – when was the last time you calculated reverse implied odds during a hand? It’s not surprising that many players lack a solid understanding of this concept.
Let’s look at a preflop example where even some capable players frequently err.
Example – 100bb effective stacks. The villain opens for 3bb on the button with KQo. The small blind folds and the hero 3bets to 10bb from the big blind. The villain then 4bets to 19bb. His range consists of JJ+/AK. Should we choose to call or fold? (Let’s set aside the option to jam, which probably isn't advisable either). implied odds .
First, let’s assess the call price we are presented with. We’d be committing 9bb into a total pot of 38.5bb. reverse implied odds According to straightforward pot-odds calculations, we would need a pot equity of 23.4% for this call to be justified.
Let’s utilize our equity calculator to evaluate how KQo measures up against the villain’s range.
Are calculations regarding pot odds before the flop important, and should they influence your decisions in that phase of the game? Here you can find answers to all your inquiries about pot odds.
Is it advisable to employ preflop poker odds calculations in your strategy?
9/38.5 = 0.2337
These calculations assist us in determining whether to call before the flop, as many poker strategies employ preflop pot odds to develop a foundational understanding of effective defensive plays prior to the flop.
Interestingly, many players remain unaware of this, but the significance of preflop pot odds in poker is often exaggerated. Instead of being a flawless
solution as advertised by certain sources, preflop pot odds can be quite misleading. One could argue that they represent a widespread myth within the poker community.
However, let’s not rush to conclusions! There is a specific preflop scenario where pot odds genuinely facilitate precise calculations.
Think about the following:
PREFLOP - WHEN POT ODDS TRULY COUNT
WHY POT ODDS ARE NOT RELIABLE FOR MOST PRE-FLOP SITUATIONS
PREFLOP - WHEN POT ODDS TRULY COUNT
Let’s analyze a sample hand where preflop pot odds play a crucial role in selecting the optimal course of action before the flop.
WHAT USE ARE POT-ODDS THEN?
Our player raises to 3bb while on the button with AKo.
In this situation, we might refer to ourselves as 'closing the action,' meaning that there are no further decisions left to be made after this moment. All we can do is hope our hand holds up at showdown. Whenever we find ourselves in a 'closing the action' scenario, it's an ideal moment to utilize pot odds.
This is because we do not have to consider any intricate variables that may arise in the later rounds. There's no need to fret over possible bets or folds; at this stage, those options no longer apply. If we have an accurate understanding of our rival’s
, we can also calculate our exact expectation (anticipated long-term returns), which is purely determined by our equity in the pot.
Scenario 1
Essential Point – Pot Odds should primarily be consulted when we face an all-in situation from our opponent.
Scenario 2
But how does this calculation actually function? We simply need to assess the odds we are receiving and contrast them against our pot odds. If we've previously dealt with postflop pot odds, then preflop calculations will follow the same principles.
We are required to match a bet of $75 after our opponent goes all-in.
1. What would the total pot amount be if we proceed to call?
2. What percentage of the entire pot are we putting at risk by making the call?
Once we make the call, the pot will roughly total 200bb (to be precise, 201bb, but we will round it down). This aligns with the fact that both players, each with 100bb, are now all-in. Our investment would be 75bb of that total (keeping in mind we don't account for our initial 25bb 4bet as it is already a part of the pot).
Thus, we are investing 75 out of 200 bb, equating to 37.5% of the overall pot. Therefore, our pot odds can be expressed as a percentage. It’s worth noting that some traditional players prefer to express this in a ratio format, i.e., 1.67:1 in our current case, but contemporary poker enthusiasts often disregard ratios. Why is that? Because we aim to compare our pot odds with our pot equity, which is generally represented in percentage terms. In any case, we will need to convert our pot odds ratio into a percentage, so it makes sense to skip that step and avoid ratios altogether.
The reasons are as follows -
When facing a heads-up all-in shove, especially with 100bb effective stacks, calculating pot odds becomes straightforward. Since the collective pot will approximately reach 200bb, we can merely halve our call amount to derive our pot odds as a percentage.
As long as our pot equity surpasses our preflop pot odds (37.5%), making that call will yield positive gains over time.
What do we hold in the previous scenario?
CONSTRUCTING PREFLOP RANGERS
to gain a rough estimate of our pot equity against our opponent’s possible hands. While typically this
wouldn’t be employed mid-hand, with enough practice utilizing equity calculators, we can quickly approximate our estimates on the spot. Since we aren’t currently mid-hand, we can leverage an equity calculator for exact calculations.
Before proceeding, we need to quickly estimate our opponent’s 5bet shoving range. As a rough guideline, their range could resemble something like this:
Naturally, given the dynamics of the table, our opponent’s shoving range might turn out to be either tighter or looser. solver By inputting the proposed range into an equity calculator, we can evaluate how it measures up against our AKo:
In this instance, our equity stands at nearly 40%, suggesting that our call may be slightly profitable. In narrowly contested situations, taking into account the rake becomes pertinent. If we find ourselves in a game where the rake hits 6% or higher, the preflop call could diminish to being slightly unprofitable. (This scenario is primarily applicable to micro-stakes matches.)