Poker Players often gauge their success in poker by using a metric called winrate.
- So, what exactly is winrate in poker?
- How is it calculated?
- How essential is it?
This article aims to address the most frequently asked questions associated with winrate.
What is Winrate in Poker?
Winrate in poker indicates the rate at which a player earns wins. In cash games, this is quantified in terms of the number of big blinds made per 100 hands (on average).
In contrast, tournaments utilize a different method for calculating winrate. It centers around the average returns a player earns from each buy-in. This is referred to as return on investment or ROI .
For instance, if a player earns an average of $0.10 for every $1 they invest in a tournament, their ROI (return on investment) would be 10%.
Calculating Winrate in Poker
In today's digital landscape, a significant number of players leverage software to analyze and calculate their winrate. This is particularly true for those playing online, where a poker tracker can effortlessly compute winrate or ROI based on the hand histories it compiles.
But what do we do if we are playing live poker or don't use any tracking software? How can we calculate our winrate manually?
Cash game participants will require the following information –
- Total number of hands we have played
- Total profit in big blinds
Unfortunately, without these two essential figures, calculating winrate isn't feasible. However, we can make educated estimates. For example, let's say we've participated in live poker for approximately 1,000 hours and we generally receive around 30 hands each hour.
Here is the formula:
Calculating Cash Game Winrate
To calculate cash game winrate in bb/100: (Profit in bb / Number of hands) * 100
Let’s test our knowledge –
Suppose we've played 100,000 poker hands and gained 3,500 big blinds. How would we determine our winrate in bb/100 hands?
(3500 / 100,000) * 100 = 3.5bb / 100 hands
Tournament players must consider the following factors –
- Our tournament winnings.
- Amount spent on tournament buy-ins.
Let’s see the formula in action.
If we have total earnings of $10,000 yet have invested about $7,500 in tournament buy-ins, what is our ROI?
($10000 - $7500) / ($7500 * 100) = ROI
$2500 / $750000 = 0.0333 or 3.33% ROI.
Note the following:
1. (Tournament Winnings – Tournament Buy-ins) represents our overall profits from tournaments. If we already know our total profit, we can directly use that figure in the formula instead of needing to perform subtraction.
2. The result from the formula appears as a decimal, for example, 0.333 in this context. We then multiply that by 100 to express our ROI as a percentage.
What’s a Good Winrate in Poker?
A frequently posed question is, 'What constitutes a good winrate?'. The reality is, it varies based on numerous factors, including stakes, game difficulty, and rake percentages.
If pressed to provide specific thresholds for this question, they would generally appear as follows.
- For Online Cash Games: typically from 0-10bb/100 hands; a winrate of 10+ is often considered remarkable across most platforms.
- For Live Cash Games: the expected range would be 0-30bb/100 hands, with a winrate of 30+ seen as exceptional.
- In Online Tournaments: the ROI generally goes from 0-30%, with figures exceeding 30% being considered outstanding.
- For Live Tournaments: the ROI might range from 0-100%, where 100%+ is regarded as exceptional.
It's important to highlight that for each scenario, we've indicated a winrate spectrum starting at zero, since any positive winrate signifies a successful outcome. With the plethora of exaggerated claims circulating in online poker communities, it's easy to forget that more than 90% of poker players ultimately incur losses.
Even a winrate of 1bb/100 in online cash games should not be dismissed. Depending on the stakes involved, such a winrate can potentially allow for a sustainable income.
Winrate by Position
Cash game participants often dissect their bb/100 winrate based on their position at the table to enhance their analysis. This level of scrutiny is seldom done manually, as players tend to rely on tracking software for such assessments. This can help identify instances where performance from a certain positional viewpoint might be lacking.
Here's a preliminary overview of the anticipated cash game winrate based on position in a full ring table.
- Early positions: typically exhibit slight positive results or may break even.
- Lojack - 5
- Hijack - 10
- Cutoff - 25
- Button - 40
- Small Blind - (-15)
- Big Blind - (-30)
It's worth noting that players operating from the small blind and big blind usually experience a negative winrate. This is not unusual. Should we fold every time we're in the big blind automatically, our winrate for this position would equate to -100bb/100 hands.
Thus, achieving a -30bb/100 hands winrate can represent a notable improvement despite remaining in the negative.
The winrates from earlier positions are negligible in significance. This statistic partly explains why numerous players prefer engaging in shorthanded tables.
Variance in Poker
It’s crucial to account for variance when we are calculating our winrate. In poker terminology, variance denotes the variability in our results relative to our actual winrate over a specific timeframe.
A poker player who is losing could have an extended winning streak that far exceeds what the average person might anticipate.
For illustration, consider if we knew the exact winrate of a losing player to be -2bb/100 hands. Over a span of 100,000 hands, what are the odds that player would break even or profit?
The answer depends on a measure known as 'standard deviation' that can be tracked by software, but many would assume that a -2bb/100 loser would have nearly no chance of making a profit over such a vast number of hands.
Mathematical analysis reveals that the likelihood of this player ending up in the black is quite significant at 21.5%!
During a simulation of 1,000 trials, we occasionally observe our -2bb/100 player coming out ahead by as much as 60 buy-ins (using 100bb stack equivalents) during this time frame. Conversely, this player could also lose as many as 80 stacks, despite their expected value being around a loss of 20 stacks over the 100,000 hands.
Therefore, when a player boasting a 'sick winrate' brags on forums after playing only 1,000 hands, we must recognize that this sample size does not provide an accurate representation.
Ideally, we should aim for a minimum of 300,000 hands (preferably more) to accurately ascertain our true winrate. Even then, our -2bb/100 loser still holds an 8.5% chance of achieving profit across that sample.
This scenario creates a challenge for live players. Assuming a standard dealing rate of 30 hands per hour at a brick-and-mortar casino, acquiring enough hands to estimate our winrate would require approximately 10,000 hours of gameplay. brick Even if we committed to playing 12 hours daily, seven days a week, we would face over two years of grinding to amass that data. If we followed a more traditional 40-hour workweek, we would likely need around five years to hit that target.
To provide context, a dedicated online professional could aggregate this amount of data in about three months, presuming they consistently play 100,000 hands a month (which is quite feasible through multi-tabling).
Focusing too intently on boosting winrate can sometimes divert attention from what truly matters. While a high winrate is certainly desirable for impressive discussions, the primary goal for most players remains to
Winrate vs Other Metrics
Thus, our hourly rate should be prioritized over merely fixating on winrate. make as much money as possible not to generate the highest winrate.
Scenario 1 – We participate at a single online table and meticulously consider each decision, achieving our peak winrate of 10bb/100 hands. Our play rate is around 100 hands per hour.
Think about the following -
Scenario 2 – We juggle six tables online, accepting that we may make occasional errors. Here, our winrate decreases to roughly 7bb/100 hands, yet we are actively playing 500 hands per hour.
It's clear that while scenario 1 boasts the highest winrate, resulting in the most appealing graph through tracking software, it’s equally evident that scenario 2 is a more lucrative pursuit.
Scenario 1 produces about 10bb per hour, while scenario 2 yields a whopping 35bb per hour thanks to the increased volume.
Upon posting the results in a forum, some may hastily label the player in scenario 1 as a 'gold star' due to their higher winrate. However, who can genuinely be considered the superior player? The one making 10bb/hour or the one racking up 35bb/hour?
There's no definitive answer, as it largely depends on individual player goals, but most players would undoubtedly favor scenario 2 over scenario 1 any day. better player A similar sentiment applies to ROI in tournaments. A higher ROI doesn't always correlate to a larger profit. Online players optimize their earnings through careful management of both winrate and volume.
Timothy 'Ch0r0r0' Allin stands as a professional player, coach, and author. Since his journey began in 2006, he has elevated his bankroll from the lowest stakes online without ever depositing a single dollar. After competing successfully in some of the toughest lineups globally, he shares his valuable insights and strategies through the 888poker magazine.
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