The Term Equity In poker, equity refers to the share of the pot that is yours based on the likelihood of winning the hand at any moment. In simpler terms, it is the percentage probability that you will win at showdown. The equity of a hand can change as the game progresses, particularly as players move closer to showdown.
Fold Equity expands on the equity concept, signifying the additional amount of equity a player secures when their aggressive actions lead an opponent to concede the hand.
For instance, if Player 1 holds a 75% chance of winning at the turn, while Player 2 holds only 25%, an all-in situation allows both players to fully realize their chances. Thus, Player 1 is favored to win three out of four encounters.
However, if Player 1 opts to bet and successfully convinces Player 2 to fold, they claim that 25% equity from fold equity, seizing the entire pot at once!
Table of Contents
- The Role of Aggression in Poker: Why Fold Equity Matters
- Fold Equity: The Significance of Semi-Bluffing in Your Strategy
- Fold Equity: River Bluffs
- Mastering the Bluff: Finding the Appropriate Size for Your Bets
- The Maths Behind Fold Equity
- Understanding Fold Equity Calculators: Their Purpose and the Metrics to Consider
- Applying Fold Equity Calculators in Your Strategy
- Typical Scenarios to Acquire Fold Equity
- Keep Player Types in Mind: Do You Have Fold Equity?
- Fold Equity Summary
The Role of Aggression in Poker: Why Fold Equity Matters
Many poker instructional resources utilize a four-quadrant diagram to showcase various styles of poker players!
Best Playing Types In Order:
- Tight-Aggressive
- Loose-Aggressive (but not overly crazy, like a maniac)
- Tight-Passive
- Loose-Passive
You'll discover that aggressive players often occupy the top two positions, while more passive players are usually positioned at the bottom. What could account for this phenomenon?
By taking passive betting lines (i.e. checks and calls The only time a hand is won is at the showdown, where players reveal their cards, allowing them to fully utilize their hand’s equity. showdown By opting for aggressive betting strategies (including bets and raises), you introduce a new avenue for victory: forcing your opponent to fold! This approach allows you to win without always having to see a showdown.
By pressuring your opponent into folding, you capture their equity and securely claim the entire pot at that moment!
Fold Equity: The Significance of Semi-Bluffing in Your Strategy
The potential of fold equity is enormous if you can maneuver your opponent into folding a hand that is currently superior to yours. Therefore, many drawing hands—especially those without showdown value—are excellent candidates for aggressive play and semi-bluffing.
(These hands may not hold value now but have a high potential to develop into a stronger hand, such as a flush or a straight.)
( Semi-Bluff Consider this scenario: You raise with 8-7 suited from early position.
The flop reveals 6-5-2 with different suits. You place a bet on the flop and attract a call from the big blind. The turn brings a Ten, and you decide to bet once more. the button : the small blind folds, and the big blind calls. The flop By doing so, you might win the entire pot, denying your opponent the chance to realize his equity and gaining what he had through fold equity. At that moment, you hold only an 8-high hand, indicating that your opponent’s folded hand was likely stronger!
Your opponent folds Now, let’s analyze some possible hands that your opponent may have chosen to fold after your turn bet, including the equity comparisons between your hand and theirs:
Consider all the high-card combinations the opposition might have played on the flop—many likely being ace-high or broadway combinations like AQo. Additionally, think about marginal hands they might have decided to discard, such as a pair of 2s or 5s.
- 87s vs AQo / A2o / A5o: 32% vs 68%
- 87s vs 85s: 18% vs 82%
In scenarios where you apply pressure and your opponent folds, you effectively seize the impressive 68% equity they possessed in that hand! If your opponent held something like 85s, you’d be gaining an astonishing 82% equity through fold equity, provided your bet causes them to fold! float Thus, it’s clear that betting as a semi-bluff carries great potential! You can either convince your opponent to fold and win the pot outright or improve your own hand and have a strong contender at showdown later!
) also often serve as excellent candidates to balance out an aggressive range. For further insights on semi-bluffing, I previously authored an article on this topic:
This fold equity principle isn’t limited to the flop or turn during semi-bluffing; it also holds true for the river!
Semi-bluff hands ( draws By the river, since there are no more community cards left to deal, all equities have been fully realized, meaning (unless there’s a split pot), one player holds the best hand (100% chance to win), while the other has the worst (0% chance). value betting Consequently, bluffing at the river can yield significant benefits if you can convince your opponent to fold! By taking an aggressive stance and making a bet (or raising), you can claim your opponent’s entire equity of 100% if they fold.
https://www.parquetbinet.com/magazine/strategy/poker-bluff/semi-bluffing
Fold Equity: River Bluffs
Therefore, the concept of fold equity is CRUCIAL and should never be overlooked! Successfully bluffing an opponent holding a superior hand can substantially increase your profits! preflop That said, you shouldn’t just mindlessly keep betting every hand in an effort to achieve this, as it opens the door for others to exploit your strategy. Instead, you can leverage fold equity calculators to help guide your decisions, helping to identify the right moments to bluff. :)
The Art of Bluffing: Finding the Appropriate Size for Your Bets
Since the equities on the flop or turn aren’t fully realized when you initiate a bet, the following straightforward ratios can assist you in determining the right mix of value bets versus bluffs:
On the river, where equities are realized, pinpointing your bet sizing along with the specific number of value hands versus bluff hands becomes much simpler, based on that chosen size. (This topic and more are extensively detailed in my comprehensive article on
Fundamentally, on the river, aim to bet with any hand that wins against your opponent over 50% of the time when they call. (This threshold might increase in tournament conditions, possibly reaching 60% due to the heightened need to protect your tournament stature.) This figure assists in gauging your value hands initially. these bluffing tips Next, you should compute the appropriate bet size and how many bluffs you can incorporate into your betting range to remain competitive and resilient against exploitation. If you choose a large bet size, you can afford to include more bluff combinations. Conversely, if you have limited bluffs in your river betting range, opt for a smaller size.
Refer to the chart we have created to better clarify these ratios:
NOTE: For those curious about how we derived these numbers, the formula to ascertain how frequently you should be
- Flop: 1 value hand: 2 bluffs / semi-bluffs
- Turn: 1 value hand: 1 bluff / semi-bluff
- River: 2 value hands: 1 bluff
Here’s one formula that can assist you in calculating your overall equity in relation to betting and capturing fold equity: bet sizing .)
Your Hand’s Current Equity + (% Villain Folds) * (Villain’s Equity) = Your Overall Equity
In simpler terms, if you're 25% likely to win the hand and you estimate that Villain will fold 50% of the time to your bet, you can realistically adjust your overall equity estimation, taking fold equity into account: bluffs Observing the previous example, you can see how your hand's equity increased from 25% to 62.5% just by placing a bet!
Naturally, the higher the probability that your opponent will fold, the greater your fold equity during your betting. This increased fold equity will also enhance your overall equity.
Sometimes, whether or not your opponent will fold depends on their player type, but more on that later! bluffing on the river is:
(bet size) / (bet size + money in pot)
For example, if someone bets $25 into a pot of $100 (making the new pot $125), then the formula would be ($25) / ($25 + $125) = 16.6% for the amount of bluffs you should have in an unexploitable river betting range for a 25% pot bet. Then you can just go 100% - 16.6% = 83% to figure out how many hands in your river betting range should be for value.
How to Calculate Fold Equity
Understanding Fold Equity Calculators: Their Purpose and the Metrics to Consider
Fold equity calculators help players determine the necessary fold percentage their opponent must achieve for a bet to grade as +EV when going all-in (whether as a raise or a call).
This tool is particularly advantageous when executing a semi-bluff with a draw, and is frequently used in scenarios such as flop and turn betting, whether as a check-raise (check-jam), or as a standard bet.
25% + (50%)*(75%) = 62.5% equity
There are four key metrics involved in calculating the required \"Villain Fold %\":
Pot Size Before You Shove: This metric accounts for any money already accumulated in the pot, along with bets or raises made in the current betting round, right before your all-in action.
How Much You Have to Call: This figure signifies the amount required to match your opponent's bet in the current betting round. (Make this '0' if you're going all-in when you're the first to act or if your opponent has checked.)
How Much You’re Shoving Total: The total amount left in your (effective) stack at the time of your shove (after any preceding bets you may have made during the round).
Fold equity calculators, like this free tool Estimated % Equity When Called: From this, you would assess your hand’s equity against the broader range of hands you think your opponent might utilize to call (not merely the specific hands they might hold). Use equity calculators like Equilab, Flopzilla, Poker Cruncher, or those integrated into your poker tracking software for this calculation. EV , or profitable.
EXAMPLE: If the pot is $100 on the flop, you bet $50, your opponent raises to $150, and then you shove for a total of $500, the metric for #1 would illustrate ($100 + $150 + $50 = $300), with $100 ($150 - $50) applicable for metric #2, and $450 ($500 stack remaining after your initial flop bet) for metric #3. Table of Contents Applying Fold Equity Calculators in Your Strategy Fold Equity: River Bluffs The Maths Behind Fold Equity
After inputting the necessary information and completing the calculations in this
- , here's a strategy to utilize the 'fold %' figure you arrive at in a practical manner:
- Take the estimated number of hand combinations you believe Villain may call your shove with and multiply that figure by 1.X, where \"X\" signifies the percentage of time Villain is expected to fold (i.e., if Villain needs to fold 25% of the time, it would be 1.25).
- From the resulting product, subtract the number of value hands.
- If you believe Villain is likely to fold at least that many hand combinations, then pushing all-in will yield a profitable outcome.
Discover the potential of Fold Equity – the advantage a player gains in a hand by betting or raising in a way that prompts their opponent to fold. This strategy can significantly enhance your winning percentage.
Understanding the Impact of Fold Equity on Your Profits in Poker
In the realm of poker, equity represents the share of the pot that one can expect to claim based on their chances of winning the current hand. Essentially, it indicates the probability that you’ll come out ahead when the cards are revealed at showdown. An important aspect to note is that a hand's equity can vary with each round as players progress closer to the showdown. Fold Equity Summary Fold Equity builds on the concept of equity by illustrating how players can increase their total equity by betting or raising, thereby forcing their opponents to give up their hands.
- For instance, consider a scenario where Player 1 has a 75% chance of winning the hand after the turn, while Player 2 has only 25%. If both players go all-in, they would each realize their respective equities, resulting in Player 1 winning three out of four times.
- However, if Player 1 decides to bet or raise and successfully convinces Player 2 to fold, Player 1 effectively absorbs that 25% equity through fold equity, securing the entire pot at that moment!
- The Role of Aggression in Poker: Why Understanding Fold Equity Matters
Fold Equity: The Significance of Semi-Bluffing
- Poker Playing Types Chart
- Mastering the Art of Bluffing: How to Select the Right Bet Size
- Fold Equity Calculators: Understanding Their Functionality and Key Metrics
Fold Equity Calculators: Practical Application of Their Features Best Playing Types In Order: Typical Scenarios for Acquiring Fold Equity
Keep Player Types in Mind: Are You Capitalizing on Fold Equity?
The Role of Aggression in Poker: Why Understanding Fold Equity Matters
Various poker education resources often illustrate a 4-quadrant model that categorizes the general playing styles of different poker participants:
- It's interesting to observe that aggressive players typically occupy the top rankings as #1 and #2, while their passive counterparts are found in #3 and #4. What accounts for this disparity?
- The only instance in which you can win a hand occurs during showdown, when players still in the game have fully realized their respective equities.
- By adopting aggressive betting strategies, such as making bets and raises, you introduce an alternative method to win the hand: persuading your opponent to fold! This tactic allows you to succeed without always having to reach the showdown to demonstrate your winning hand.
- By exerting pressure on your opponent to relinquish their hand, you claim their equity and win the entire pot immediately!
- Fold Equity: The Significance of Semi-Bluffing
The power of fold equity is immense, especially when you can induce your opponent to fold a hand that is better than your own. This makes it particularly advantageous to play aggressively with draws that have limited current value but the potential for significant improvement, such as transitioning into a strong hand with a straight or flush.
Picture this scenario: You raise to open with an 8-7 suited hand from a position, and the flop shows 6-5-2 with all different suits. You make a bet with your open-ended straight draw, and the big blind decides to call. The turn reveals a Ten, prompting you to place another bet.
Should your bet lead your opponent to fold, you secure the entire pot, preventing them from realizing the equity they had in the hand, thanks to fold equity. At that point, your only holding is an 8-high, which indicates that the hand your opponent gave up was likely stronger than yours!
Let's examine some hands that your opponent may have discarded when facing your turn bet and assess how your equity compares against theirs:
Tight-Aggressive Loose-Aggressive Consider how many high-value card combinations your opponent might have continued with on the flop – many of these could consist of ace-high cards or strong broadway hands, like AQo. Additionally, think about the weaker pairs, such as 2's or 5's, which are also candidates for folding.
By making a bet that prompts your opponent to fold, you seize a staggering 68% of the equity that they originally held in the hand! If your opponent had a hand like 85s, your fold equity could yield an astounding 82% equity advantage, given that your bet would compel him to throw his hand away!
Thus, it's clear that using semi-bluffing as a betting strategy can be exceptionally rewarding! You have the chance to either force your opponent to fold and instantly claim the pot or enhance your own hand for a strong showing at showdown later.
- ) also serve as excellent candidates to create balance in a range. For further insights into the intricacies of semi-bluffing, refer to my previous article on the subject:
- The principle of fold equity isn't limited to actions during the flop or turn in semi-bluff scenarios; it applies just as effectively on the river!
- By the time you reach the river, all equities have been fully realized, meaning that unless the pot ends in a split, one player has the strongest hand (100% chance to win at showdown), while the other possesses the weakest (0% chance to win).
(but not overly crazy, like a maniac)
Therefore, executing a bluff on the river can yield significant rewards if you manage to convince your opponent to fold! By adopting an aggressive approach and placing a bet (or raising), you can absorb Villain's total 100% equity in the pot upon successfully getting them to fold. Tight-Passive In summary, fold equity is an EXTREMELY important concept that shouldn’t be overlooked! If you can bluff your way past a stronger hand, you can greatly enhance your profits!
However, don’t simply wager recklessly in a blind effort to achieve this. Such an approach opens the door to counter-exploitation. You can employ tools like Loose-Passive , By taking passive betting lines (i.e. checks and to guide you in making calculated decisions about the ideal moments to implement a bluff.