The Comprehensive Guide to EV in Poker: From Newbie to Expert.

EV means “ expected value In the context of poker, this term indicates the expected monetary outcome a player can anticipate from making a specific move during a hand.

In this article, we’ll delve into the nuances of EV, discussing methods to calculate it, strategies to leverage it for increased earnings, and hypothetical scenarios where these principles apply.

Check out the interview where Kara Scott chats with Ana Marquez about the concept of EV:

Table of Contents

HOW CAN I USE EV TO PROFIT IN POKER?

When playing poker, it’s generally advisable to pursue routes that offer the highest EV to enhance your winnings.

The only exception might be when you’re deliberately working to create a certain perception of yourself for greater long-term EV. A case in point is when Gus Hansen made a daring call in a four-way all-in situation during a PLO game on Poker After Dark with a hand holding 8-6-3-2 in one suit, having only a 17.7% chance of winning. In a later talk, he described that hand as part of his 'advertising budget,' to ensure he gains greater payouts in future encounters from opponents who might remember that play. Overall, though, opting for high, immediate EV decisions typically guarantees better and steadier profits over time.

Often, to assess the EV of a particular choice, players will analyze their potential profit based on a logical estimate of how likely their opponents are to either call or fold.

Taking calculated risks is essential for maximizing your EV and overall profit, especially in scenarios where betting aggressively or making a bold call can pay off significantly. However, many players hesitate to take these risks due to their fear of losing in that single round. combination of a probable (yet uncertain) range analysis of their opponent(s) These players often overlook that when making strategic plays, they shouldn’t be overly focused on immediate outcomes but should instead evaluate whether they’re engaging in a strategy that will prove profitable in the long run. By consistently putting their money in favorable situations or choosing routes that yield positive expected value against different opponents and their ranges, they can become successful players over time.

In conclusion, poker enthusiasts should aim to enhance their long-term financial benefits rather than fixating on short-term gains and the risks involved, particularly when those risks present a positive EV. bluff EV(Situation) = Percentage(X1)Amount(X2) + Percentage(Y1)Amount(Y2)

Consider the following scenario. You’re presented with two choices:

The EV Formula:

Many individuals I’ve asked this question of have expressed that they would prefer to take the guaranteed $1,000 instead. For countless people, this sum is an appealing amount, and they often express a desire to 'have something rather than risk getting nothing.' Essentially, they lean towards safe money and shy away from the uncertainty of potentially leaving empty-handed.

BASIC EV EXAMPLE #1

However, for a poker player, this scenario is a textbook example of when you should always be eager to flip that coin. Why, you ask?

• Take $1,000 now.

• If you consistently opt for Option #1, you’ll secure an additional $1,000 each time.

On the other hand, with Option #2, you have a 50% chance of winning $10,000, but a 50% chance of winning $0.

The formula for EV in the case of the coin flip is EV (coin flip) = P(tails)amt(tails) + P(heads)amt(heads).

Therefore, regardless of which outcome occurs, you'd be thrilled to flip the coin since it offers a significantly higher average profit compared to opting for the guaranteed $1,000. This principle is what we should strive for in poker and when considering EV: aiming for maximal gains over the long haul. (Avoid fixating on immediate results.)

One summer, Planet Hollywood's poker room in Las Vegas introduced a high-hand promotion wherein if you made four of a kind or better using both hole cards, you were entitled to a mystery prize.

We can write this as:

Upon selecting an initial cash award from the first bag, you had the option to either retain your winnings or take a gamble by choosing between two tokens from a second bag—one token halved your winnings while the other doubled them.

EV (coin flip) = (50%)($10,000) + (50%)($0)

EV (coin flip) = $5,000 + $0

EV (coin flip) = $5,000

The EV of accepting Option #1 is +$1,000; and

The EV of accepting Option #2 is +$5,000.

If you manage to hit quads or better, determining the EV of selecting a token from the bag becomes essential, particularly if you decide against using the second bag.

BASIC EV EXAMPLE #2:

The solution is straightforward: we simply need to calculate an average. quads Each time you achieve quads or better, your EV from the mystery bag amounts to $83.33.

This bag contained 6 tokens: 4 x $50, 1 x $100, and 1 x $200.

If fortune smiles upon you and you select the $200 token, should you opt to utilize the second bag or stick with the $200?

QUESTION 1 :

Is selecting from the second bag a positive or negative EV move?

EV = P(choosing ½ token)amt(loss $100) + P(choosing 2x token)amt(win $200).

EV = ($50 + $50 + $50 + $50 +$100 + $200) / 6

EV = $500 / 6

EV = $83.33

Every time you elect to engage with the second bag following a $200 token victory, you can anticipate an average profit increase of $50 (totaling $250).

QUESTION 2 :

(Notice that the $250 total lays halfway between the possible outcomes of $100 profit or $400 profit. However, not all EV calculations will neatly fit this 50/50 model, as will soon be demonstrated.)^ndIf you present a casual player with the option of drawing from the second bag, they may be hesitant to risk losing half of their winnings. They might feel more inclined to safeguard their assured gains.

Yet, a professional poker player understands that, in the broader scope of things, choosing to engage with the second bag will yield them an average profit in the longer term. (Remember, short-term results are irrelevant for seasoned players.) Hence, committed competitors should consistently and confidently opt to interact with the second bag to achieve a more favorable expected value.

EV = (0.5)(-$100) + (0.5)($200)

EV = -$50 + $100

EV = $50

If every decision made throughout a poker hand is focused on maximizing expected value, you'll find yourself excelling in the game and achieving remarkable outcomes!

As a result, dedicating some time to work 'in the lab' is crucial for studying examples and concepts revolving around EV. (Indeed, this investment of time may feel challenging initially, but just like any skill, it becomes easier with practice. Plus, your performance at the tables will improve significantly if you prioritize studying these concepts outside of gameplay.)

Your study of EV can take the form of practical, handwritten examples as we will encounter later in this article, or via tools such as^ndthat can be found online (including PokerSnowie and PioSOLVER).

These tools significantly streamline the process of assessing the anticipated EV from various decisions (fold/ call/ bet/ raise) and incorporating different bet sizes into the consideration.^ndBefore we jump into the examples below, it’s vital to differentiate between equity and expected value, as these terms are sometimes mistakenly interchanged.^nd(Unlike EV), equity signifies the proportion of the pot that justifiably belongs to you, based on the estimated likelihood of your hand winning against your opponents at showdown.

SO, WITH EV - WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN?

For instance, if you find yourself all-in preflop with QQ against AKs, QQ holds a slight edge, giving it a 54% equity advantage. (Alternatively, considering a $400 pot, QQ's equity against AKs equates to (54%)($400) = $216.)

To calculate the EV for this particular scenario, we can harness our understanding of equity (percentages) to gauge the outcome.

With effective stack sizes of $200, the EV of going all-in with QQ preflop against AKs stands at +$16—indicating that you'll profit, on average, by $16 whenever this situation materializes. solver EV extends beyond merely assessing wins and losses; it also involves optimizing the potential amount of money you could gain or the losses you can mitigate when faced with a bluff.

EQUITY AND EXPECTED VALUE (EV)

Imagine that the pot on the river contains $200, and you hold A-J on the board A-3-J-J-9. Your opponent checks, and you have $400 left in your stack. How does the EV change when you decide to bet $100 versus going all-in for $400? What conditions would determine the use of one bet size over the other?

Equity When determining the optimal bet size in this situation, your perception of how often your opponent is likely to call each bet size is crucial. For example, let’s assume your opponent will call a $100 bet 50% of the time, while a $400 bet is only accepted 25% of the time.

Which betting option carries a higher expected value?

EV = P(OppCalls)(50%) amt(Pot + bet)($300) + P(OppFolds)(50%) amt(Pot)($200).

EV = pWinning(54%)amtWon($200) + pLosing(46%)potLost($200)

EV = $108 - $92

EV = $16

EV = P(OppCalls)(25%) amt(Pot + bet)($600) + P(OppFolds)(75%) amt(Pot)($200).

EXAMPLE #1: BET SIZING

Here, we can see that even though our opponent might call a larger bet less frequently (25% compared to 50%), the EV resulting from overbetting surpasses that of a $100 bet—provided our estimated percentages of how often the opponent calls are accurate.

A significant portion of understanding EV hinges upon making predictions based on probabilities and assessing how your opponent might respond in specific scenarios.

Now let’s consider a board showing Ac-4c-8s-9d-2s. You have AKo and some insights about your opponent:

He tends to value bet weaker hands more readily than he calls.

He often folds the weakest top pairs after facing three consecutive bets.

He will call on the flop and turn with draws primarily when in position.

$50 River Bet

He will bluffer missed draws when it's checked to him, but he rarely bluffs by raising on the river.

EV = ($150) + ($100)

EV = $250

$250 River Bet

In this scenario, having raised preflop, you’ve made a continuation bet on the flop, followed by another on the turn with top pair, top kicker, and your opponent has simply called both times. Now, you need to decide whether to bet or check, considering which option yields a higher expected value.

EV = ($150) + ($150)

EV = $300

By choosing to check, there’s a good chance you could entice your opponent to bet with a broader array of hands compared to what they’d call if you chose to bet.

EXAMPLE #2: VALUE BET VS BLUFF CATCH

Discover everything there is to learn about Expected Value (EV) in poker, ranging from essential concepts for novices to complex calculations for experts.

Comprehensive EV Poker Guide: From Novice to Expert - Your Ultimate Resource

• In the realm of poker, the term reflects the average earnings or losses a player can anticipate from taking a specific action during a hand.
• This article delves into the nuances of EV, detailing how to compute it, employ it strategically for increasing your profits, and explore various hypothetical scenarios that illustrate its applications.
• Check out the interview featuring Kara Scott and Ana Marquez discussing the concept of EV:
• In poker, your goal should always be to choose avenues that offer the highest EV possible to enhance your earnings.

CHECKING VS. BETTING:

When calculating the EV of a particular action, players frequently rely on probability predictions and their understanding of how often they expect their rivals to call or fold.

• His missed draws
• Some weaker top pairs
• Best top pairs (that we still beat)
• Hands that beat us

Embracing risk is essential for maximizing your EV and profits, which might include substantial bets in strategic situations or making hero calls after an opponent raises. Many amateur players are deterred by the fear of negative outcomes tied to a specific hand.

• Best top pairs (that we still beat)
• Hands that beat us

These cautious players often overlook the bigger picture, forgetting that the focus should be on whether a play is advantageous in the long haul, rather than fixating on immediate results. By consistently investing in advantageous situations and deploying strategies that yield positive expected values against specific opponents and their likely hand ranges, players can achieve long-term success.

To summarize, poker players should strive to optimize their long-term earnings rather than being consumed by short-term outcomes or risks (particularly when those risks are likely to be +EV).

• Villain will bet 80% when we check to him
• EV(Situation) = Percentage(X1)Amount(X2) + Percentage(Y1)Amount(Y2)
• Consider this scenario: you are presented with a choice between two possibilities.
• Toss a coin; if it shows tails, you win $10,000, but if it lands on heads, your prize is nothing.
• Any further bet would be for $100.

CHECKING :

In my experience asking various people, many would prefer to take the guaranteed $1,000 instead. They view it as significant, expressing a preference for having something rather than nothing. They would rather hold onto a sure win than risk walking away with empty hands.

In contrast, as a poker player, this presents a classic situation where one should always be enthusiastic about taking the chance to flip the coin. Why is that?

EV = (80%)(90%)($250) + (80%)(10%)(-$100) + (20%)($150)

EV = (0.72)($250) + (0.08)(-$100) + (0.2)($150)

EV = $180 - $8 + $30

EV = +$202

BETTING :

Opting for the first option ensures that you earn $1,000 every time without fail.

On the other hand, choosing the second option gives you a 50% chance to win $10,000, while you also have a 50% chance of walking away with nothing.

EV = (20%)(90%)($250) + (20%)(10%)(-$100) + (80%)($150)

EV = (0.2)(0.9)($250) + (0.2)(0.1)(-$100) + (0.8)($150)

EV = (0.18)($250) + (0.02)(-$100) + (0.8)($150)

EV = $45 - $2 + $120

EV = +$163

The expected value of this coin flip can be computed as follows: EV (coin flip) = P(tails)amt(tails) + P(heads)amt(heads).

Thus, regardless of the individual outcome, tossing that coin should excite you, as it's statistically more beneficial in terms of profit over time compared to simply accepting the assured cash. In poker and with EV, our focus should be on maximizing returns in the long run (avoiding an obsession with short-term results).

Last summer, there was an enticing promotion in the poker room at Planet Hollywood in Las Vegas. If you achieved

or better using both of your hole cards, you received a reward from the \"Mystery Bag.\"

After claiming a monetary prize from the first bag, you could either keep your winnings or gamble by choosing from two tokens in a second bag – one token would halve your reward, while another would double it.

If you hit quads or a better hand, what would be the expected value of picking a token from the second bag, assuming you ignore the choice to use it?^ndpair with showdown value.

To resolve this, we just need to calculate an average.

When you pull something from the Mystery Bag after making quads or higher, your expected value every time is $83.33.

Here’s our assumptions of his range:

Note some of the assumptions:

• The EV can be expressed as: EV = p(choose ½ token)amt(lose $100) + p(choosing 2x token)amt(win $200).
• Each time you decide to opt for the second bag after securing the $200 token, your average profit expectation increases by $50 (leading to an overall total of $250).
• (Notably, this total of $250 falls midway between the two potential outcomes of $100 or $400 profit. However, not all EV calculations adhere to this 50/50 scenario, as we will explore shortly.)

An inexperienced player might hesitate when faced with the choice of using the second bag, fearing the potential to lose half of their gains. They may simply prefer to safeguard their already guaranteed winnings.

• …our remaining stack size…
• …the pot size…
• Conversely, a seasoned poker player understands that, over time, they will achieve average profits whenever they opt for the second bag. (Remember, immediate outcomes are not paramount for professionals.) Therefore, serious players should confidently opt to use the second bag, as it results in a higher expected value (or average outcome).
• …how many of these he will fold out…

…and put them all together.

When every choice you make in a poker game serves to maximize your expected value, you'll notice significant improvements in your performance!

Thus, allocating time for study—what some call 'the lab'—is crucial for grasping EV concepts and examples. (This may feel demanding and perhaps overwhelming at first, but, as with anything, it becomes simpler with practice. Moreover, this effort will greatly enhance your performance at the table.)

Your EV study can either resemble practical, handwritten examples we'll discuss later or involve the use of ^ndpurchased tools like PokerSnowie and PioSOLVER.

These applications significantly ease the learning process by showing how various EV outcomes can manifest from different actions (fold/ call/ bet/ raise), while also considering different bet or raise amounts.

EV (checking) = (7/26) x size of pot

EV (checking) = 0.269 x $160

EV (checking) = +$43.08

Before diving into the following examples, it's essential to clarify the distinctions between equity and expected value, as colloquially they are often confused.

Equity (unlike EV) signifies the portion of the pot that is rightfully yours based on the probability of winning against your opponents.

For instance, let’s assume you go all-in preflop with QQ against AKs. Here, QQ holds a slight edge, with an estimated 54% equity. (Alternatively, for a $400 pot, the equity translates to (54%)($400) = $216.)

EV (betting) = $84.16 + (-56.88)

EV (betting) = +$27.28

SUPPLEMENTAL CHARTS:

With effective stacks at $200, going all-in with QQ against AKs yields an EV of +$16, meaning you can expect to make an average profit of $16 in this circumstances.

EV encompasses more than just wins and losses; it's also about optimizing the expected amounts you can gain (or save in situations where you're bluffing).

UNDERSTANDING VARIANCE

Consequently, determining appropriate bet sizes plays a pivotal role in effectively implementing EV principles to maximize your profits in poker.

SUMMARY

Now picture a situation where there's $200 in the pot on the river and you hold A-J on the board showing A-3-J-J-9. Your opponent has checked, and your stack has $400 left. How does the EV of a $100 bet compare to that of going all-in for $400? Which strategy should you employ for optimal results?

In this case of betting sizes, the outcome relies heavily on your estimation of how frequently your opponent will call each size. For example, let’s say your opponent would call a $100 bet half the time, while only 25% on a $400 bet.

Which betting strategy offers the greater expected value?