Understanding when to call in poker is not always straightforward.
Just because we lose the pot doesn’t mean we made the wrong call.
Conversely, even if we win, it’s vital to analyze if our call will yield long-term profitability.
Is there a reliable method to determine whether our calls are the right ones?
Definitely. This concise strategy guide will illustrate how pot odds can help us immediately enhance our results at the poker table.
Learning Poker Odds
What are Pot Odds Anyway?
Pot odds in poker refer to the ratio of what we need to call compared to the total sum already in the pot.
This information is essential. We don't have to win frequently to achieve a profit if there are already plenty of chips in the pot.
It might seem reasonable to assume we need to be successful more than 50% of the time for our call to be valid. However, this is a misconception.
In many instances, it is appropriate to call even when we project a high likelihood of losing. Over time, the potential for winning exceeds the amount we put at risk.
How Are Pot Odds Calculated?
We can calculate our pot odds by determining the percentage of the total pot that we are contributing with our call.
For instance, consider this example -
If there’s $100 in the pot and our opponent bets $50, how much of the total pot would we be contributing if we choose to call?
Post-call, the pot would contain $200, with our contribution being $50. Thus, we are putting in 25% (or a quarter) of the total pot.
We can conclude that we have been offered pot odds of 25% on this call.
How Are Pot Odds Used?
The pot odds percentage is more than just a number; it indicates how often we need to win the pot to ensure profitability from the call.
In the previously mentioned case, with 25% pot odds, if we anticipate winning more than 25% of the time after calling, the call becomes a profitable one.
This holds true even if we win the pot 30% of the time; we would still be on the losing end 70% of the time after making the call!
If our expectation was only to win 20% of the time, calling would turn out to be a poor decision in the long haul. (Despite the fact that we would technically win 20% of the time.)
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Did You Know? The notion that calling can be advantageous even when facing high loss rates can be puzzling initially. How does this mechanism work? Picture a cloaked stranger who proposes a bet. He’s willing to wager $1,000,000 against our $1 - winner takes all. The twist? The stranger wins 75% of the time, leaving us with only a 25% chance of winning. Even with a losing outlook most of the time, this is an exceptionally lucrative bet because our potential gains are substantial relative to our minimal losses. |
How Do We Know How Often We’ll Win?
Understanding how frequently we need to win is important, but how can we gauge our actual success rate, in practice?
This situation is where pot equity This is where pot equity comes into play. It represents another percentage that reveals our probability of winning based on the hands our opponents hold.
Calculating pot equity can be somewhat complex since we rarely know exactly which hands our opponents are playing.
It’s poker, after all!
As our poker skills develop, we will improve in estimating how likely we are to win in different scenarios.
Example 1: Facing a River Bet
Consider this scenario: There’s $100 in the pot on the river, and our opponent goes all-in for $100. We hold a weak pair and suspect our opponent is bluffing approximately 40% of the time. Should we call?
In this situation, we would be putting in 33.33% (or one-third) of the total pot if we decided to call. Therefore, we need to win more than 33.33% of the time for the call to be considered profitable.
Since we have a weak pair, we are likely only to win if our opponent is indeed bluffing. Given their past behavior, we estimate their bluffing frequency at around 40%. Thus, calling seems justified here.
Instead of recalculating pot odds in each hand, it can be helpful to memorize certain standard pot odds values. Refer to the chart provided in the section on Common Pot Odds Values below.
Example 2: Facing a Flop All-In
With $50 in the pot on the flop, and our opponent goes all-in for their remaining $100, holding a nut flush draw, is it advisable to call?
It’s wise to remember the frequency with which various types of draws tend to hit by the river. Check the Common Draws and Equity chart below for reference.
A flush draw is expected to complete around 35% of the time by the river. Thus, we can estimate our pot equity at approximately 35%, assuming victory is contingent on hitting our flush.
Now, how frequently do we need to hit for our call to be worthwhile? Given that our opponent is betting twice the pot, we would be risking 40% of the total pot with our call.
To ensure profitability, we need to win more than 40% of the time; however, we will only complete our flush 35% of the time. Therefore, it’s best to fold.
Common Pot Odds Values
The optimal way to tackle pot odds is by memorizing values that correspond to common bet sizes.
Traditionally, players have tried to calculate pot odds in the midst of a hand. The downside is that this diverts attention from other crucial aspects of the game.
It’s much more effective to simply 'know' our pot odds for various situations.
| Facing Bet Size (%) | Pot Equity Required to Call |
| 20 | 14.29 |
| 33 | 19.88 |
| 50 | 25.00 |
| 66 | 28.45 |
| 80 | 30.77 |
| 100 | 33.33 |
| 150 | 37.50 |
| 200 | 40.00 |
Common Draws and Equity
The conventional approach involves pausing mid-hand to tally our outs. An 'out' is any card that could enhance our hand to become the best one.
Avoiding unnecessary calculations during the hand allows us to concentrate fully on the ongoing action.
Memorizing probabilities for common draw types hitting by the river is considerably simpler.
The following table outlines the most typical draws along with their likelihood of success.
| Outs | Turn to River | Flop to River |
| Flush Draw + Open Ended Straight Draw | 32.60% | 54.10% |
| Flush Draw + Gutshot | 26.10% | 45.00% |
| Flush Draw | 19.60% | 35.00% |
| Open Ended Straight Draw | 17.40% | 31.50% |
| 2 Overcards (to make top pair) | 13.00% | 24.10% |
| Pair (to make two pair or trips) | 10.90% | 20.30% |
| Gutshot | 8.70% | 16.50% |
When Can Pot Odds Be Applied?
Pot odds should only be utilized in two specific situations -
- When facing an all-in bet from our opponent (or something very close to it).
- When we are making our final decision in a hand just before showdown.
Further betting actions should not impact pot odds validity after we've made our call.
If additional chips can still be contested after our call, we should apply an implied odds calculation. This type of pot odds calculation considers chips that we may win or lose as the hand progresses.
In our earlier section, Common Draws and Equity, we didn’t factor in the probabilities of hitting our draw from flop to turn. This data would only be relevant for an implied odds calculation.
A pot odds calculation presumes that we are all-in by the flop, focusing solely on our chances of hitting from flop to river.
Putting it Together
Mastering pot odds takes time. However, it can be simplified by remembering the fundamental values.
Why not begin with the standard values presented in the tables above? Try to relate them to the right situations during your next poker session.
While pot odds is a concept that can be grasped fairly easily, its impact on our winnings can be tremendously significant!