Explanation of Variance
Poker fundamentally revolves around the long term. While it is achievable to win significantly over an extensive sample size if one possesses the necessary skills, it’s important to anticipate considerable fluctuations in the short run. These fluctuations are commonly known as “ variance ”.
A lot of players fail to grasp just how profound the implications of variance can be. For example, it might come as a surprise to many that even a player who averages 6 big blinds per 100 hands in cash games could potentially face losses after playing 100,000 hands. While this scenario isn’t very common, it’s likely that any player who plays a high volume will experience a rough patch eventually.
On the flip side, it’s entirely feasible for a player who generally loses to actually make a profit over the course of 100,000 hands of poker. There are instances where players have quit their day jobs due to substantial early winnings, only to later realize that consistent success requires a serious enhancement of their skills.
There are online tools known as “ variance calculators/simulators,” which assist us in determining the best and worst possible performance scenarios based on specific win rates, standard deviations, and the number of trials. (It’s worth noting that standard deviation can typically be extracted from poker tracking software.)
Variance in Context -> Some forms of poker inherently carry a higher degree of variance than others.
Incorporating Variance into Your Poker Strategy
Let’s highlight two essential takeaways from the previous discussion related to variance .
1. Short-term results can often be misleading and shouldn’t be overvalued. Anyone can hit a lucky streak over 20,000 hands; even a highly positive graph during such a limited sample does not serve as valid evidence of a player's skill or long-term profitability.
2. Even top-tier players will encounter significant downswings and periods of neutrality. Therefore, it’s crucial to cultivate a resilient mental attitude to navigate through the ups and downs of variance . For additional insights on this topic, take a look at the glossary entry on mindset .
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