Explanation of Reverse Implied Odds
Reverse implied odds are generally seen as the contrary to implied odds in poker. Implied odds enable players to make calls even when they lack sufficient direct pot odds, buoyed by the potential to win more chips in later rounds. Grasping the idea of implied odds can help players better understand reverse implied odds . For further insights, check the glossary entries under poker Conversely, reverse implied odds suggest that it may not be entirely incorrect mathematically to make a particular call, even if we seem to have direct pot odds. The reason for this is the high likelihood of losing even more chips during later betting rounds, despite having successfully completed our hand. Therefore, we require a better pot odds ratio to offset the risk of losing these extra chips in future streets. pot odds and implied odds for more information on the topic.
There are two main categories of hands that are particularly susceptible to reverse implied odds .
1. Draws that are dominated. Whenever we have a draw that isn't to the nuts, we risk being overshadowed by a stronger draw once we complete our hand. This dynamic increases the likelihood of losing more chips upon hitting our draw, necessitating a better direct price to counter this risk.
2. Mid-strength made hands that are vulnerable and unlikely to improve. A prime example of this is holding a mid-pair in Texas Hold’em. This type of hand not only has a low probability of improving by the river, but its strength often diminishes as more community cards are revealed. Competing draws complete and overcards appear, diminishing the chances of our pair holding up effectively against pressure in later betting rounds.
Illustration of Reverse Implied Odds in Context -> Exercise caution with weaker draws, as they may be accompanied by considerable reverse implied odds .
Incorporating Reverse Implied Odds into Your Poker Strategy
A crucial adjustment in your strategy involves recognizing situations where reverse implied odds must be mindful. In circumstances with a bleak outlook for future streets, we need better direct pot odds for our call to be justified. This can be succinctly demonstrated through two examples -
Example 1: We are out of position on the turn in Texas Hold’em. The pot has $100, and our opponent bets $25. If we choose to call, there would be a total of $250 left in effective stacks.
We're being offered a fantastic price for our call. With a flush draw that hits approximately 18% of the time, we would be putting in only 16.67% of the total pot. By our previous reasoning, we have pot odds and should make the call without hesitation, right?
Board: T♠T♣5♠8♠
Hand: Q♦7♠
However, complications arise once we complete our flush on the river and our opponent raises with a substantial bet. Should we fold or call in this scenario? We initially justified our turn call by believing our draw would yield the superior hand; yet, the likelihood suggests our opponent holds a stronger flush or even a full house.
Given the high risk of being outdone even after making our hand, the pot odds we calculated on the turn become misleading. Although we seemed to have the right direct pot odds, the reality of needing to fold due to our reverse implied odds becomes apparent. An alternative approach to this situation is to significantly reduce the pot odds figures we consider while executing our conventional calculations. Regardless of our method, the takeaway remains. We must exercise caution when pursuing draws to hands that may already be dominated, even if the price we’re offered appears compelling.
Example 2: Again, we are out of position on the turn in Texas Hold’em. The pot has $100, and our opponent makes a bet of $50. If we call, there would be $250 remaining in effective stacks. outs Per the direct pot odds, we would only require 25% equity to justify this call. It’s essential to keep in mind that calculations of direct pot odds are only valid when facing an all-in bet. When additional chips remain in the pot, we must also account for the potential implied odds (or reverse implied odds ).
Let’s say we enter our opponent’s betting range into an equity calculator and discover that we have 30% equity. Technically speaking, we are receiving more than the necessary pot odds to make the call, which should suggest we should proceed, right? Yet again, we must tread carefully. What strategy will we employ on the river if our opponent makes another hefty bet? If they consistently bet and we frequently choose to fold, does it matter that we are getting the appropriate pot odds specifically on the turn? If we hypothetically opt to call on some river occasions, this type of hand is at a much higher risk of losing additional chips than garnering them, indicating it is significantly impacted by reverse implied odds . Thus, we need a greater equity percentage than it may seem initially to profit from our turn call.
Board: J♠9♠4♣2♣
Hand: 5♣5♥
We can gauge this equity requirement by estimating the average sizes and frequencies of the bets we might face on the river. For instance, imagine that 50% of the time our opponent will bet $150 on the river. This would be equivalent to encountering a $75 bet every time. By integrating this value into our initial pot odds calculations, we can generate a more accurate estimation of the equity needed for our turn call.
To achieve this, we can factor the additional $75 river bet into our opponent’s turn bet sizing. Instead of being faced with a $50 bet in a $100 pot on the turn, we are really considering a $125 bet against a $100 pot. Should we call in this instance, we would be committing $125 to a pot totaling $350. Based on direct pot odds, we would require approximately 35.7% equity to justify the call. This approach typically leads to a more precise estimation of the required equity for our turn call from the initial scenario. While this method may not encompass every potential variable, it serves to impart a vital lesson about the application of pot odds. We cannot rely solely on direct pot odds calculations when there exists a possibility that our opponent may maintain their aggression in subsequent betting rounds.
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Incorporating Reverse Implied Odds into Your Poker Strategy
See Also
Pot Odds , Implied Odds , Equity , Sizing