Explanation of Implied Odds
To fully grasp implied odds, it’s essential first to understand pot odds. This involves analyzing the pot size in relation to our stake to assess whether we possess enough equity to justify calling. This concept becomes particularly significant when we encounter an all-in bet from an opponent. For more details, refer to the glossary entry under pot odds and familiarize yourself with the fundamental principles behind pot odds.
Implied odds can be considered in situations where the bet we face is not an all-in, meaning there are additional chips still available for subsequent rounds after our call. The calculations for implied odds are essentially the same as for pot odds, with the crucial distinction being that we base our figures on the anticipated implied pot rather than the actual pot size at the moment.
What exactly do we mean by an implied pot? It serves as a prediction of how much larger the pot will likely become by the time we reach the river. For practical insights, refer to the strategy application example below.
Sample Use of Implied Odds in Context -> With 200bb at stake in the effective stacks , we clearly had the implied odds to defend our gutshot against a raise on the flop.
Integrating Implied Odds into Your Poker Strategy
Now, let's analyze a scenario where we apply an implied odds calculation with a practical example.
Example – Imagine we are on the turn with $250 in effective stacks, holding a nut draw with around 20% pot equity. The current pot is $100, and our opponent bets $50 while out of position. Should we consider making the call here?
This scenario highlights the limitations of relying solely on pot odds. If we perform a straightforward pot odds calculation, we might not reach an accurate conclusion.
Here, we would be putting in $50 into a total pot of $200, which would require us to have at least 25% equity to justify the call.
($50/$200) * 100 = 25 or 25% pot equity required.
With only 20% equity available, this would technically be a negative play if we assume our opponent's $50 bet was an all-in scenario.
Now, considering both players have another $200 available to bet on the river, there's a reasonable chance we could win some of that additional money if we complete our draw. This is where an implied odds calculation becomes necessary. Let's say that if we complete our hand, we would always win the remaining $200 from our opponent.
After we call, the total pot stands at $200, but the implied pot includes our opponent's additional $200. Hence, we can conduct a pot odds assessment by treating the overall pot size as $400 instead of just $200.
($50/400) * 100 = 12.5 or 12.5% pot equity required.
Suddenly, things look significantly more advantageous. We only require 12.5% equity to proceed, while our actual equity is 20%.
Estimating the Implied Pot
In the example given, we assumed we would win the entirety of our opponent's stack once we hit our card. While this might be true in some cases, it’s often not the case. There are several reasons why we might not capture the full stack from our opponent:
- Villain might not pay us off.
- We might opt for a non-all-in sizing.
- It's possible we complete our draw yet still lose the hand.
Typically, we aim to make a realistic estimate of what we can win in the later streets. Taking our previous example, let’s assume we always make a pot-sized bet of $200 on the river. If the opponent calls about 50% of the time, this equates to consistently receiving a $100 bet with a 100% frequency. Therefore, a projected total of $100 as our river earnings may serve as a more conservative estimate to add to our implied pot. By recalculating:
($50/$300) * 100 = 16.666, or approximately 16.67% equity needed to call.
We still have a solid case for calling here (since we hold 20% equity), but the profit margins are narrower.
The implied pot size is more of a ballpark figure than an exact calculation. The accuracy of our implied odds estimations improves with the reliability of our predictions. In contrast, pot odds provide precise calculations because we can always clearly ascertain the total pot size after an all-in bet. To enhance the accuracy of our implied odds estimates, considering the following factors may prove beneficial:
- Weak opponents lead to better implied odds. (For instance, if our opponent tends to call frequently or makes large bluffs with a varied hand range.)
- Strong opponents lead to worse implied odds. (If our opponent is skilled enough to fold more frequently when we hit our hand.)
- Deep effective stacks yield better implied odds. (The larger the remaining stack, the greater potential winnings we have if we complete our draw.)
- Shallow effective stacks generate worse implied odds. (If only $10 remains for later rounds, that's all we can hope to win.)
- Nut draws improve implied odds. (It's ideal when the hand we hit is the best possible outcome, allowing us to aim for maximum stacks.)
- Dominated draws decrease implied odds. (If we hit but our opponents have a stronger hand, they will benefit from any further betting action. This is referred to as reverse implied odds . See the glossary entry for further details on this concept.)
- Being in position results in better Implied odds . (Controlling the game's pace and securing significant payouts is easier when we hold the positional advantage.)
- Being out of position reduces implied odds. (The lack of information makes it harder to extract large bets without a strong hand.)
See Also
Pot Odds , Reverse Implied Odds , Effective Stacks , Domination , Equity