Explanation of Downswing
Given the significant impact of variance, it's fairly common for poker players, even those who are successful, to experience downswings periodically.
The potential severity of downswings typically correlates with a player's winrate and style of play. Players who maintain lower winrates are more prone to frequent downswings . Additionally, playing styles with higher variance tend to see both major downswings and upswings more often.
As a general estimate, even proficient cash-game players might encounter losses up to 20 buy-ins occasionally, perhaps 2 to 3 times every million hands played. More common are smaller downswings of around 5 buy-ins, which should be accepted as a normal aspect of poker.
If strong winning players can expect some level of downswings , most players will likely face even greater fluctuations. This is particularly true for individuals whose winrates hover near the break-even point, such as 1 big blind for every 100 hands. Major downswings are nearly inevitable; it’s only a matter of time before they occur.
To better understand the nature of potential downswings , we can utilize variance simulators. These tools enable us to input specific variables, like our winrate and standard deviation, and provide projections for both the best and worst-case outcomes of our performance.
Some worst-case scenarios can be quite astonishing; for instance, a player with a winrate of 6 big blinds per 100 hands could find themselves losing over 100,000 hands in cash games. While this is unlikely, as players increase their volume of play, the chances of encountering an exceptionally poor run during their career become higher.
Integrating Downswing into Your Poker Strategy
For many poker enthusiasts, the real challenge isn't the downswing itself; it's how they psychologically handle extended periods of losing chips.
In numerous significant downswings , only a portion can be rightfully attributed to luck. After a player loses the initial 5 to 10 stacks, their performance can start to deteriorate due to tilt, leading them to make questionable decisions at the tables.
Thus, it’s plausible that after losing 20 stacks, only 10 of those losses stem from variance, while the remaining 10 are influenced by mental game difficulties. Consequently, many downswings end up lasting longer due to these psychological factors.
It's crucial not to view the idea of a downswing as an excuse for shirking responsibility for losses. When in doubt, it's often safer to believe that losses arise from poor decision-making rather than mere chance. Some players consistently incur losses but refuse to re-assess their strategies because they convince themselves that they're 'just having a bad run' and that 'eventually, luck will turn in their favor.'
While it's certainly feasible to lose more than 20 buy-ins in a cash game as a result of variance, the probability of such an event suggests that the player may not genuinely be winning in those games (unless they have demonstrated a consistent winning history in that environment).
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