Explanation of Bluff
Players often casually refer to terms like bluff and value-bet to rationalize their betting strategies in poker. However, these terms are somewhat vague and can overlap, particularly in the initial betting rounds. For instance, a bluff , which is meant to push superior hands out, might surprisingly be called by weaker hands instead. This situation can arise in Hold’em when we bluff on the turn with a hand that has Ace-high, only for our opponent to respond with a Ten-high straight draw.
Ultimately, it is the intention behind our bets that dictates what we label them as. If our goal is to force stronger hands to fold, we categorize our action as a bluff , regardless of whether lower-ranked hands decide to call or stronger hands choose not to fold.
While there are times when it is easy to distinguish between a player who is value-betting and one who is bluffing , this distinction is not always clear-cut. The same action might be characterized as either a value-bet or a bluff , depending on the player's intention. For example, a player with a notably strong hand might behave as though they’re bluffing , creating ambiguity over whether they are trying for a thin value-bet (hoping to get called by worse hands) or attempting to push out better hands. However, this often indicates subpar play; seasoned players usually take cleaner approaches where their intentions are apparent.
Example of Bluff used in sentence -> We completely missed our flush draw, so we opted to execute a substantial bluff .
Incorporating Bluffing into Your Poker Strategy
Evaluating the Profitability of a Bluff
The frequency with which a bluff needs to succeed in order to be profitable depends largely on how much we bet. This assumption holds true under the presumption that we hold no equity in the pot. For example, if we find ourselves with an utterly worthless hand in earlier betting rounds, or if we make a pure-bluff on the river without any outs left to improve, this concept becomes clearer. Even the weakest hands in the early game typically carry a small amount of equity, so it’s more straightforward to analyze bluff scenarios by focusing on the river.
Example – If there’s $100 in the pot on the river and we decide to make a $50 bluff , we need to determine how often this bluff must succeed to ensure profitability.
A common misconception among beginners is that every bluff must win at least 50% of the time to be considered profitable. After all, if our bluff fails frequently, why would we attempt it? This line of thinking overlooks the fact that there are already chips present in the pot, which means a bluff can still be profitable even if it fails more often than not.
The success rate required for a bluff is directly related to the amount of the total pot we are risking with that particular bet. In the example mentioned, we are risking one-third of the total pot – investing $50 into a $150 pot. Therefore, this bluff remains profitable as long as it wins the pot more than 33% of the time. If this bluff is effective 40% of the time on average, logically, we should proceed to bluff all our air hands in that scenario. However, many players find it psychologically challenging because they can instinctively sense that their bluff is failing more often than succeeding. Yet, those who appreciate the mathematics behind bluffing will recognize that continuing to bluff here is strategic, as it is expected to be profitable in the long run.
For additional insights on calculating the profitability of bluffing in cases where we still have some pot-equity, refer to the glossary entry concerning semi-bluffing.
When is Bluffing a Good Idea?
In this discussion, we will focus on pure-bluffs , which means we have no equity in the pot. Generally, there is often no need to make pure-bluffs during the flop or turn. Instead, we can forgo pure-bluffs in favor of semi-bluffs (bluffing with some pot-equity). The only scenario where we might be inclined to pure-bluff on the flop or turn is if we notice our opponent tends to fold excessively.
The river is the stage where our pure-bluffs typically make the most sense. It is the only round where our goal may involve pushing both the best and worst hands. On earlier streets, we generally wish to avoid betting our least favorable holdings, as we can choose to fold those hands and proceed with ones that have greater potential.
The key factor in identifying our weakest possible hands on the river is their ability to win at showdown. If a hand can never achieve victory at showdown, it becomes a very logical contender for a bluff . The expectation of simply checking on the river is zero (as the hand is a guaranteed loss), while the expectation of a bluff could still turn out to be profitable if our opponent folds more frequently than required.
Hands that possesssome showdown value might still serve as effective bluffs , but they are not as naturally fitting as bluff candidates. This is because they have the chance to win at showdown, potentially generating positive expectation by checking. The true concern lies not in whether a bluff can be profitable, but rather in whether the potential payoff of checking exceeds that of attempting a bluff .
Of course, holding an air hand on the river does not automatically mean that bluffing will yield profits. For instance, our opponent might be someone who calls frequently. It’s essential to factor in our observations and insights regarding the opponent. Against those who don’t fold on the river, it may be wise to cease all bluffs and limit our betting to value hands.
See Also
Expectation , Expected Value , Value Bet , River , Showdown , Equity