A Variance Expert

What distinguishes poker from other games is the element of variance. It uniquely combines luck and skill, where even the most skilled players can face setbacks against those with less experience in the short run. Unlike traditional games where skill directly determines the outcome, poker's variance complicates things. It obscures the reality of performance and can lead to misconceptions about a player's true abilities. poker strategy wins in the long run, but regularly lose How confident are you in your grasp of luck's role in poker? If you resemble many of the players I've encountered, you might not fully comprehend it. While poker enthusiasts usually have a grasp on variance that's better than most, their emotional reactions to swings in variance reveal that there's still ample room for growth in their understanding.

Watch the video below to explore instances that may reflect a misunderstanding of luck: mental game of poker strategy.

A string of poor results could simply be an effect of variance at work.

• You are frustrated losing to a weaker player
• Experiencing tilt can lead to a complete loss of composure after negative outcomes.
• You shift to lower stakes following a rough stretch, even when your bankroll would allow for higher stakes games.
• Your performance motivation can fluctuate significantly following a winning or losing streak.
• Obsessive reliance on gut feelings may cause you to overlook your own errors.
• You ignore mistakes when running well
• Your urgency to correct your gameplay becomes pronounced only in times of loss.
• You quit early to “lock up a win”
• While in gameplay, you frequently monitor your results.
• Navigating Variance in Poker Games

For those who struggle with variance, the primary issue isn't just the erratic ups and downs or perceived injustices, but rather the ambiguity surrounding it. The sting of losing patterns is painful, but the unknown can be even more detrimental.

In poker, uncertainty explains the importance of mentality. not knowing Of course, no one possesses the ability to predict when a bad run will conclude or which cards might appear next. Nonetheless, improving your approach to variance is achievable without needing extraordinary insights. In the concluding chapter of this guide,

Poker strategy doesn’t have instant fixes. poker strategy Historically, players learned about variance just by experiencing it. While this remains a prominent method, there exists another approach: becoming an expert in variance by examining it much like any other facet of the game. Here are some suggestions:

Analyzing Data to Grasp Variance deal with variance Are You Experiencing a Bad Beat or Is Variance Impacting Your Game?

• Don’t disregard narratives from fellow players detailing their rough patches; understand the breadth of their struggles instead of jumping to conclusions about their skill level.


• Top poker players are adept at handling uncertainties, and many actively respond to inquiries on social media and forums while also creating high-quality instructional videos on the topic. Be sure to check those out.


• Avoid poor decisions by adhering to sound strategic principles in poker.


• Document your insights about variance in a dedicated journal. Review it before every playing session.


• Write a short poker strategy Poker facts shouldn't be swayed by opinion.


• , it’s easy to mislead yourself. Ensure you have substantial evidence for any self-evaluation. A valuable poker tip for both novice and experienced players is to seek out feedback from others. If your assessments prove accurate, you'll begin to trust your instincts more. your opinion As you dive deeper into the study of variance and the concepts start to resonate with you, you'll transition from a superficial understanding to a more instinctive grasp of it. When your awareness of variance reaches this heightened level, it will significantly alter your responses to unfortunate outcomes, such as bad beats or extended losing streaks experienced during live games. An instinctive comprehension of variance allows you to manage both positive and negative swings without drastically altering your strategy. You won't feel the need to lower or increase your stakes, take unexpected breaks, or quit while ahead as self-imposed limits. These are all strategies that players commonly adopt when dealing with

variance. You'll recognize that you've made significant strides in managing variance when such strategies become unnecessary. manage their negative reactions Jared Tendler, MS, LMHC is a licensed therapist focused on sports psychology and is recognized as a leading expert on the mental aspects of poker. Over nearly a decade, he has coached over 500 players from more than 45 nations, including numerous top-ranked professionals. He also authored two widely acclaimed books on the topic, The Mental Game of Poker 1 and 2.